Training Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Forecasting

Training Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Forecasting

INTRODUCTION

Economics is composed of parts: microeconomics and macroeconomics. The focus of this course is macroeconomics. It introduces participants to the principles of macroeconomics and other related topics such as monetary policy, inflation, and economic fluctuations. By the end of this course, participants will have explored the key questions in macroeconomics and learn about the most successful economies experience.

PROGRAMME OBJECTIVES 

• Understanding savings, investment, and the financial system
• Learning about the monetary and the banking system
• Discussing central banks, monetary policies, and inflation
• Learning economic fluctuations
• Exploring fiscal and monetary policies

WHO SHOULD ATTEND?

• Managers
• Financial officers
• Financial planners
• Auditors  

PROGRAM OUTLINE

• • Introduction and gross domestic product
  • Macroeconomic aggregates
  • The components of GDP
  • Real and nominal GDP
  • GDP deflator

• • Savings and Investment in a closed economy
  • The market for loanable funds
  • Labor market
  • The natural rate and the cyclical unemployment
  • Consumer price index

• • Price indices and relative prices 
  • Trends in relative prices 
  • Output and real interest rates 
  • Philips curves
  • Exchange rate (UIP)

• • Monetary policy rule
  • Foreign block
  • Money, monetary system and inflation
  • Fiscal and monetary policies
  • The money demand

• • The theory of liquidity preference
  • The impact of monetary policies on the aggregate demand
  • Fiscal policies and the multiplier effect
  • Fiscal policies and the crowding-out effect
  • The argument for and against the use of fiscal and monetary policy

• • Applying the model for policy analysis
  • Calibration and data
  • Applying the model for macro forecasting
  • In–sample forecasting properties
  • Out–of-sample forecasting

• • Vector autocorrelations
  • Impulse response functions and analysis
  • Forecast error variance decompositions
  • Historical decompositions

• • Open economies and trade balances
  • Capital flows
  • The relationship between savings, investment, and capital flows in open economies
  • Nominal and real exchange rate

• • Economics fluctuation 
  • Aggregate demand
  • The forces affecting growth, inflation, and unemployment
  • National study of demand and supply
  • Short and long run aggregate supply curve

• Forecasting procedure
• Forecasting results
• Time series forecasting
• Additive model
• Multiplicative models